PARLIAMENT QUESTION: OPERATIONAL FORECASTING AND MONITORING MECHANISMS

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) utilizes advanced Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) and statistical systems for monsoon forecasting, which includes its Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS).

Since its implementation in 2021, the MME strategy has markedly improved the accuracy of monsoon predictions, reducing average forecast errors significantly compared to previous years. IMD issues two-stage probabilistic forecasts for the Southwest Monsoon, defining 'above normal' within specific LPA percentages.